Why the Horn of Africa Is Strategically Important

One. The shipping lane. The Bab el-Mandeb is the southern gate of the Red Sea and the only sea route between the Indian Ocean and Suez. A very large share of world trade, including a substantial share of seaborne oil, passes through it. Any state with an interest in that traffic has an interest in the Horn.

Two. Military basing. Djibouti hosts installations belonging to several foreign powers, including the United States, France, Japan, Italy and China. It is one of the few places on earth where that many militaries maintain a permanent presence in one small country, and the reason is position.

Three. Proximity to the Gulf. The Horn faces the Arabian Peninsula across a narrow strait. Gulf states have pursued port investments, agricultural land arrangements and political relationships across the region, and Yemen's conflict has made the opposite shore directly relevant to Horn security.

Four. Population and market size. Ethiopia alone is the second most populous country in Africa. The four Horn states together represent a substantial and young market, and Addis Ababa hosts the African Union, which gives the region diplomatic weight beyond its economic size.

Five. Migration. The eastern route toward the Gulf and the northern route toward the Mediterranean both originate or transit here. That makes the Horn's stability a direct policy concern for Europe and the Gulf.

Six. Resources and connectivity. Ethiopian hydropower, Eritrean minerals, Danakil potash, Somali fisheries and offshore hydrocarbon prospects are the physical resources. The submarine cables through the Red Sea are the digital ones — much of East Africa's international bandwidth passes through this corridor.

The consequence. External interest brings investment, and it brings competition. Horn governments have leverage they would not otherwise have, and they operate in an environment where several outside powers with conflicting objectives are simultaneously active. Managing that is the central skill of Horn statecraft, and the region's history offers examples of it being done well and badly.